Bayescraft — Bayesian Experiment Calculator

Estimate credible success rates from trial data and forecast future outcomes.

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Analytical Beta

Posterior Probability Rate

Conjugate Beta Updating
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Swipe horizontally to inspect all posterior diagnostics
Parameter ($\theta$) Mean ($\mathbb{E}$) SD ($\sigma$) $\text{HDI}_{\text{low}}$ $\text{HDI}_{\text{high}}$ $\text{MCSE}$ $\text{ESS}_{\text{bulk}}$ $\hat{R}$
θ (Probability Rate) --------------
Prior Parameters
Prior Mean --
Prior SD --
α --
β --

Posterior Predictive Simulations

Matplotlib Dual Figure
Predictive Controls
Live Reactive
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Dual PMF chart view
Auto-updates on input change
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